A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
