🔗 Share this article

Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just the winner overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots added later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year backed Zohran now. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might go over two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and residents all went for the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. However overall, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were strongly supportive. So I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.